When will Facebook be overrun by the dead?

Adage ran a story today (that I happened to see while deleting their unopened email) about teens leaving Facebook but Facebook still having more teens than anyone else.

Marketing and agency people get nervous about things like this because Facebook is an easy way to put impressive looking numbers on charts alongside words like engagement, social, and digital. Facebook is the beard of the marketing world. Companies that are incredibly traditional in thinking can fool their board memebers and stock holders into thinking they’re with it and engaging with millennials.

Anyways, I thought the Adage story contrasted nicely with a post that Kottke linked to that tries to work out the point at which Facebook has more profiles for the dead than the living.

Based on the site’s growth rate, and the age breakdown of their users over time,[2] there are probably 10 to 20 million people who created Facebook profiles who have since died.

These people are, at the moment, spread out pretty evenly across the age spectrum. Young people have a much lower death rate than people in their sixties or seventies, but they make up a substantial share of the dead on Facebook simply because there have been so many of them using it.

It’s nice to know that we’ll all end up on the winning team.